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俄羅斯政治桎梏經(jīng)濟發(fā)展
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2016/12/28 18:57:05

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eging4

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俄羅斯政治桎梏經(jīng)濟發(fā)展

Capping what president Vladimir Putin must feel has been a good year for Russia, Moscow’s stock market is one of 2016’s best performers.

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)在年末的感受應該是俄羅斯度過(guò)了美好的一年，莫斯科股市是2016年表現最佳的股市之一。

Despite sanctions restricting banks’ and oil companies’ access to western finance, Russian equities are up about 27 per cent in local currency and 47 per cent in dollar terms.

盡管制裁限制了俄羅斯銀行和石油公司到西方市場(chǎng)融資，以俄羅斯盧布計俄羅斯股市上漲約27%，以美元計漲幅更是達到了47%。

Yet this recovery is linked almost entirely to short-term external factors rather than long-term fundamentals.

然而，這種復蘇幾乎完全只與短期外部因素有關(guān)，無(wú)法歸功于長(cháng)期基本面。

Oil prices, Russia’s economic lifeblood, are up about 50 per cent from a year ago.

俄羅斯經(jīng)濟命脈——石油的價(jià)格相比一年前上漲約50%。

Little surprise, then, that equities and the rouble should have strengthened.

因此，俄羅斯股票和盧布上揚也不足為奇了。

Investors are also betting on a Trump trade — a deal between Mr Putin and the incoming US president that eases sanctions.

投資者也在押注特朗普交易——普京和即將上任的美國總統可能達成一項放松對俄制裁的協(xié)議。

The outlook remains anaemic.

俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟前景依然黯淡。

Russia is just pulling out of a two-year recession.

該國還在努力擺脫持續2年的衰退。

Output contracted about 0.6 per cent this year.

今年的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出將收縮約0.6%。

Assuming sanctions remain, international forecasters see economic growth of perhaps 1.2 per cent next year, and 1.5 per cent in 2018 and beyond.

假定制裁沒(méi)有解除，國際預測者認為俄羅斯明年經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)率可能為1.2%，在2018年和以后達到1.5%左右。

That lags behind global growth, the US, and even the EU.

這落后于全球、美國，甚至歐盟的預期經(jīng)濟增速。

The Russian president has boosted his popularity by seeking to restore his country’s great power status, starting with the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

俄羅斯總統尋求恢復俄羅斯大國地位，2014年吞并克里米亞就是開(kāi)端，這提升了他本人的支持率。

But the cost of sanctions and isolation — on top of weak energy prices — has been high.

但制裁和孤立的代價(jià)——尤其是在能源價(jià)格低迷的情況下——十分高昂。

Though Mr Putin promised healthy growth when he returned as president in 2012, aggregate growth over his six-year third term is set to be about 1 per cent at best — while the global economy has been expanding at well over 3 per cent a year.

盡管普京在2012年再次出任總統時(shí)承諾將實(shí)現俄羅斯經(jīng)濟健康增長(cháng)，預計在他第三個(gè)總統任期的6年里俄羅斯最多只會(huì )增長(cháng)約1%，而全球經(jīng)濟目前保持著(zhù)每年3%以上的增速。

In a country with a freer press and more competitive politics, voters would surely judge such broken promises harshly.

如果是在一個(gè)媒體更自由、政治競爭更強的國家，選民必然會(huì )嚴厲評判這種未能兌現承諾的行為。

There are ways to boost growth.

有一些方法能夠提振俄羅斯的增長(cháng)。

Easing sanctions might add a percentage point.

放松制裁或許會(huì )讓增長(cháng)提升1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

A similar amount could come from expanding Mr Putin’s efforts to make Russia’s bureaucracy and state management more efficient and chisel away at endemic corruption.

普京改善俄羅斯官僚體系、提高政府管理效率以及鏟除地方腐敗的措施如果能加大力度，或許也能讓增長(cháng)再提升1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

The fundamental problem, however, is that domestic and foreign investors, uncertain about Russia’s prospects and protection of property rights, are not putting sufficient capital in new capacity or productivity improvements.

然而，根本問(wèn)題是國內外投資者因為不確定俄羅斯的前景和產(chǎn)權保護情況，沒(méi)有大力投資增加新產(chǎn)能或者提高生產(chǎn)率。

Investment is running at about 20 per cent of output.

目前投資占經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出比重約為20%。

Mr Putin pledged in 2012 to lift it to 27 per cent.

普京在2012年承諾將這一比例提升到27%。

To address the investment problem, Russia needs not just long-delayed structural reforms, but sweeping institutional changes to boost political competition and rule of law, and to establish an independent judiciary.

要解決投資難題，俄羅斯不僅需要實(shí)施拖延已久的結構性改革，還需要進(jìn)行徹底的制度變革，以促進(jìn)政治競爭、加強法治，并建設獨立的司法體系。

Alexei Kudrin, the liberal former finance minister apparently still trusted by Mr Putin, has been asked to draw up reform plans to be unveiled next year.

顯然仍得普京信任的自由主義前財政部長(cháng)阿列克謝.庫德林(Alexei Kudrin)受命擬定明年將要公布的改革計劃。

But there is little optimism that they will ever be implemented.

但對于這些改革最終是否能得到實(shí)施，很少有人保持樂(lè )觀(guān)。

The business community long ago concluded real reform was unlikely as long as this president and his circle remain in place.

商界很久之前就得出結論，只要普京和他的圈子依然當政，俄羅斯就不可能實(shí)施真正的改革。

Reforms robust enough to boost the economy would threaten their hold on power.

足以提振經(jīng)濟的強勁改革將會(huì )威脅他們對權力的掌控。

Will Russians accept years of stagnation? Their phlegmatic response to the belt-tightening demanded of them since 2014 suggests they might.

俄羅斯人會(huì )接受持續數年的停滯嗎？對2014年以來(lái)被要求勒緊褲腰帶的境遇，俄羅斯人平靜以對，這表明他們或許真的會(huì )接受。

Mr Putin’s propaganda machine is adept at distraction, and Russians see little alternative to their current leader.

普京的宣傳機器擅長(cháng)轉移注意力，俄羅斯人也不認為有誰(shuí)能替代他們現在的領(lǐng)袖。

The image of market democracy, moreover, was tarnished by the hardships and distortions of Russia’s 1990s post-communist transition.

此外，俄羅斯在上世紀90年代后共產(chǎn)主義轉型中經(jīng)歷的困境和扭曲現象損害了市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟和民主體制的形象。

The EU and US have ceased to be seen as positive models.

歐洲和美國不再被視為正面榜樣。

Other world leaders may have to get used to the idea of Mr Putin being around for a long time yet — even as he slowly allows Russia’s economy to slip ever further behind.

世界其他國家的領(lǐng)袖或許必須習慣，普京還將在很長(cháng)一段時(shí)間里屹立政壇——即使他正慢慢讓俄羅斯經(jīng)濟進(jìn)一步落后。

2022/9/28 23:20:59

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nihaota

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